Research on the Anti-Risk Mechanism of Mask Green Supply Chain from the Perspective of Cooperation between Retailers, Suppliers, and Financial Institutions.

Against the background of the pandemic, the mask supply chain faces the risk of pollution caused by discarded masks, the risk of insufficient funds of retailers, and the risk of mask overstock. To better guard against the above risks, this study constructed a two-party game model and a cusp catastrophe model from the perspective of the mask green supply chain, and studied the strategic choices of retailers and suppliers in the supply chain affected by the risk of capital constraints and overstock. The result shows that the risk shocks will lead to the disruption of the mask green supply chain, and the main factors affecting the strategy choice of mask suppliers and retailers are mask recycling rate, deposit ratio, risk occurrence time, etc. In further research, this study involved a mechanism for financial institutions, mask retailers, and the government to jointly deal with the risk of mask overstock, the risk of retailers' insufficient funds, and the risk of environmental pollution from discarded masks. The research path and conclusion of this study reveal the risks in the circulation area of mask supplies during the pandemic, and provide recommendations for planning for future crises and risk prevention.

Clinical characteristics of patients with confirmed and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in China.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the clinical characteristics of patients with asymptomatic novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and compare them with those of patients with mild disease. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Multiple medical centers in Wuhan, Hubei, China. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 3,263 patients with laboratory-confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2) infection between February 4, 2020, and April 15, 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Patient demographic characteristics, medical history, vital signs, and laboratory and chest computed tomography (CT) findings. RESULTS: A total of 3,173 and 90 patients with mild and moderate, and asymptomatic COVID-19, respectively, were included. A total of 575 (18.2%) symptomatic patients and 4 (4.4%) asymptomatic patients developed the severe illness. All asymptomatic patients recovered; no deaths were observed in this group. The median duration of viral shedding in asymptomatic patients was 17 (interquartile range, 9.25-25) days. Patients with higher levels of ultrasensitive C-reactive protein (odds ratio [OR] = 1.025, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-1.04), lower red blood cell volume distribution width (OR = 0.68, 95% CI 0.51-0.88), lower creatine kinase Isoenzyme(0.94, 0.89-0.98) levels, or lower lesion ratio (OR = 0.01, 95% CI 0.00-0.33) at admission were more likely than their counterparts to have asymptomatic disease. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with younger ages and fewer comorbidities are more likely to be asymptomatic. Asymptomatic patients had similar laboratory characteristics and longer virus shedding time than symptomatic patients; screen and isolation during their infection were helpful to reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

Elevated Fasting Blood Glucose Levels Are Associated with Worse Clinical Outcomes in COVID-19 Patients Than in Pneumonia Patients with Bacterial Infections.

AIMS: We investigate how fasting blood glucose (FBG) levels affect the clinical severity in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients, pneumonia patients with sole bacterial infection, and pneumonia patients with concurrent bacterial and fungal infections. METHODS: We enrolled 2761 COVID-19 patients, 1686 pneumonia patients with bacterial infections, and 2035 pneumonia patients with concurrent infections. We used multivariate logistic regression analysis to assess the associations between FBG levels and clinical severity. RESULTS: FBG levels in COVID-19 patients were significantly higher than in other pneumonia patients during hospitalisation and at discharge (all p < 0.05). Among COVID-19 patients, the odds ratios of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), respiratory failure (RF), acute hepatitis/liver failure (AH/LF), length of stay, and intensive care unit (ICU) admission were 12.80 (95% CI, 4.80-37.96), 5.72 (2.95-11.06), 2.60 (1.20-5.32), 1.42 (1.26-1.59), and 5.16 (3.26-8.17) times higher in the FBG ≥7.0 mmol/L group than in FBG < 6.1 mmol/L group, respectively. The odds ratios of RF, AH/LF, length of stay, and ICU admission were increased to a lesser extent in pneumonia patients with sole bacterial infection (3.70 [2.21-6.29]; 1.56 [1.17-2.07]; 0.98 [0.88-1.11]; 2.06 [1.26-3.36], respectively). The odds ratios of ARDS, RF, AH/LF, length of stay, and ICU admission were increased to a lesser extent in pneumonia patients with concurrent infections (3.04 [0.36-6.41]; 2.31 [1.76-3.05]; 1.21 [0.97-1.52]; 1.02 [0.93-1.13]; 1.72 [1.19-2.50], respectively). Among COVID-19 patients, the incidence rate of ICU admission on day 21 in the FBG ≥ 7.0 mmol/L group was six times higher than in the FBG < 6.1 mmol/L group (12.30% vs. 2.21%, p < 0.001). Among other pneumonia patients, the incidence rate of ICU admission on day 21 was only two times higher. CONCLUSIONS: Elevated FBG levels at admission predict subsequent clinical severity in all pneumonia patients regardless of the underlying pathogens, but COVID-19 patients are more sensitive to FBG levels, and suffer more severe clinical complications than other pneumonia patients.

High Fasting Blood Glucose Level With Unknown Prior History of Diabetes Is Associated With High Risk of Severe Adverse COVID-19 Outcome.

Background: We aimed to understand how glycaemic levels among COVID-19 patients impact their disease progression and clinical complications. Methods: We enrolled 2,366 COVID-19 patients from Huoshenshan hospital in Wuhan. We stratified the COVID-19 patients into four subgroups by current fasting blood glucose (FBG) levels and their awareness of prior diabetic status, including patients with FBG<6.1mmol/L with no history of diabetes (group 1), patients with FBG<6.1mmol/L with a history of diabetes diagnosed (group 2), patients with FBG≥6.1mmol/L with no history of diabetes (group 3) and patients with FBG≥6.1mmol/L with a history of diabetes diagnosed (group 4). A multivariate cause-specific Cox proportional hazard model was used to assess the associations between FBG levels or prior diabetic status and clinical adversities in COVID-19 patients. Results: COVID-19 patients with higher FBG and unknown diabetes in the past (group 3) are more likely to progress to the severe or critical stage than patients in other groups (severe: 38.46% vs 23.46%-30.70%; critical 7.69% vs 0.61%-3.96%). These patients also have the highest abnormal level of inflammatory parameters, complications, and clinical adversities among all four groups (all p<0.05). On day 21 of hospitalisation, group 3 had a significantly higher risk of ICU admission [14.1% (9.6%-18.6%)] than group 4 [7.0% (3.7%-10.3%)], group 2 [4.0% (0.2%-7.8%)] and group 1 [2.1% (1.4%-2.8%)], (P<0.001). Compared with group 1 who had low FBG, group 3 demonstrated 5 times higher risk of ICU admission events during hospitalisation (HR=5.38, 3.46-8.35, P<0.001), while group 4, where the patients had high FBG and prior diabetes diagnosed, also showed a significantly higher risk (HR=1.99, 1.12-3.52, P=0.019), but to a much lesser extent than in group 3. Conclusion: Our study shows that COVID-19 patients with current high FBG levels but unaware of pre-existing diabetes, or possibly new onset diabetes as a result of COVID-19 infection, have a higher risk of more severe adverse outcomes than those aware of prior diagnosis of diabetes and those with low current FBG levels.

DeepKG: An End-to-End Deep Learning-Based Workflow for Biomedical Knowledge Graph Extraction, Optimization and Applications.

SUMMARY: DeepKG is an end-to-end deep learning-based workflow that helps researchers automatically mine valuable knowledge in biomedical literature. Users can utilize it to establish customized knowledge graphs in specified domains, thus facilitating in-depth understanding on disease mechanisms and applications on drug repurposing and clinical research, etc. To improve the performance of DeepKG, a cascaded hybrid information extraction framework (CHIEF) is developed for training model of 3-tuple extraction, and a novel AutoML-based knowledge representation algorithm (AutoTransX) is proposed for knowledge representation and inference. The system has been deployed in dozens of hospitals and extensive experiments strongly evidence the effectiveness. In the context of 144,900 COVID-19 scholarly full-text literature, DeepKG generates a high-quality knowledge graph with 7,980 entities and 43,760 3-tuples, a candidate drug list, and relevant animal experimental studies are being carried out. To accelerate more studies, we make DeepKG publicly available and provide an online tool including the data of 3-tuples, potential drug list, question answering system, visualization platform. AVAILABILITY: Free to all users: http://covidkg.ai/. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Integrated medical resource consumption stratification in hospitalized patients: an Auto Triage Management model based on accurate risk, cost and length of stay prediction.

Triage management plays important roles in hospitalized patients for disease severity stratification and medical burden analysis. Although progression risks have been extensively researched for numbers of diseases, other crucial indicators that reflect patients' economic and time costs have not been systematically studied. To address the problems, we developed an automatic deep learning based Auto Triage Management (ATM) Framework capable of accurately modelling patients' disease progression risk and health economic evaluation. Based on them, we can first discover the relationship between disease progression and medical system cost, find potential features that can more precisely aid patient triage in resource allocation, and allow treatment plan searching that has cured patients. Applying ATM in COVID-19, we built a joint model to predict patients' risk, the total length of stay (LoS) and cost when at-admission, and remaining LoS and cost at a given hospitalized time point, with C-index 0.930 and 0.869 for risk prediction, mean absolute error (MAE) of 5.61 and 5.90 days for total LoS prediction in internal and external validation data.

Elevated glucose level leads to rapid COVID-19 progression and high fatality.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to identify high-risk factors for disease progression and fatality for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. METHODS: We enrolled 2433 COVID-19 patients and used LASSO regression and multivariable cause-specific Cox proportional hazard models to identify the risk factors for disease progression and fatality. RESULTS: The median time for progression from mild-to-moderate, moderate-to-severe, severe-to-critical, and critical-to-death were 3.0 (interquartile range: 1.8-5.5), 3.0 (1.0-7.0), 3.0 (1.0-8.0), and 6.5 (4.0-16.3) days, respectively. Among 1,758 mild or moderate patients at admission, 474 (27.0%) progressed to a severe or critical stage. Age above 60 years, elevated levels of blood glucose, respiratory rate, fever, chest tightness, c-reaction protein, lactate dehydrogenase, direct bilirubin, and low albumin and lymphocyte count were significant risk factors for progression. Of 675 severe or critical patients at admission, 41 (6.1%) died. Age above 74 years, elevated levels of blood glucose, fibrinogen and creatine kinase-MB, and low plateleta count were significant risk factors for fatality. Patients with elevated blood glucose level were 58% more likely to progress and 3.22 times more likely to die of COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: Older age, elevated glucose level, and clinical indicators related to systemic inflammatory responses and multiple organ failures, predict both the disease progression and the fatality of COVID-19 patients.

Assisting scalable diagnosis automatically via CT images in the combat against COVID-19.

The pandemic of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is causing enormous loss of life globally. Prompt case identification is critical. The reference method is the real-time reverse transcription PCR (RT-PCR) assay, whose limitations may curb its prompt large-scale application. COVID-19 manifests with chest computed tomography (CT) abnormalities, some even before the onset of symptoms. We tested the hypothesis that the application of deep learning (DL) to 3D CT images could help identify COVID-19 infections. Using data from 920 COVID-19 and 1,073 non-COVID-19 pneumonia patients, we developed a modified DenseNet-264 model, COVIDNet, to classify CT images to either class. When tested on an independent set of 233 COVID-19 and 289 non-COVID-19 pneumonia patients, COVIDNet achieved an accuracy rate of 94.3% and an area under the curve of 0.98. As of March 23, 2020, the COVIDNet system had been used 11,966 times with a sensitivity of 91.12% and a specificity of 88.50% in six hospitals with PCR confirmation. Application of DL to CT images may improve both efficiency and capacity of case detection and long-term surveillance.